DES MOINES – The big news in presidential politics this Sunday is the pole vault of Mike Huckabee into first place in the new Des Moines Register poll of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers, who had appeared to favor the better-known, better-financed Mitt Romney for much of this year.
The poll found Mr. Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas, winning 29 percent of the support from Republicans who definitely or probably plan to vote in the Jan. 3 caucuses – an increase of 17 points since the last poll in early October. Mr. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, fell to second place with 24 percent of the vote, while former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani came in third with 13 percent.
On the Democratic side, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois showed continued strength against Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, polling in a statistical dead heat that also includes former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina.
The poll of 500 Republicans and 500 Democrats, conducted in late November, had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Iowa goes first among all the states in the presidential nominating process of caucuses and primaries, followed by New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.
In the last Register poll, in early October, Mrs. Clinton led Mr. Edwards and Mr. Obama, 29-23-22 percent respectively.
Since then Mrs. Clinton has faced a barrage of criticism from the two men – particularly from Mr. Edwards – over her positions on Iran, Social Security reform, and her candor and electability. She has only recently begun returning fire in kind, though so far it has been mostly aimed at Mr. Obama and the fact that his health insurance proposal does not guarantee universal coverage because it does not require people to obtain insurance.
Among the most interesting findings in the poll, Mr. Obama also overtook Mrs. Clinton in her core demographic – female voters. He had support from 31 percent of women likely to attend the caucuses, compared to 26 percent for Mrs. Clinton. In the October poll, Mrs. Clinton had 34 percent to Mr. Obama’s 21 percent.
The poll also found Mr. Huckabee leading Mr. Romney among men, born-again Christians, and middle-aged voters, and running about even among women and older voters. Mr. Romney did better with younger Republicans,
Three other Republican candidates – Fred Thompson, John McCain, and Ron Paul – were all in the single digits in the new poll.
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