Youth Vote Soars In N.H. Primary

This story was written by Allie Lowe, The DartmouthYouth voters came out for this year's New Hampshire primary in dramatically higher numbers than in past contests, as 53,000 more voters under the age of 30 headed to the polls than in 2004 . On Tuesday, the youth vote revived Sen. John McCain's, R-Ariz., ailing campaign and helped Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., secure a close second-place finish.

Forty-three percent of eligible New Hampshire voters under age 30 participated in Tuesday's vote, a dramatic increase from the 18 and 28 percent participation rates in the 2004 and 2000 primaries, according to a report by The Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, a nonpartisan research center that studies youth civic engagement.

Obama received 60 percent of the 18 to 24-year old vote in the state, while Clinton received 22 percent of this demographic. Among voters aged 25 to 29, Clinton narrowly beat out Obama, gaining 27 percent of the vote to Obama's 25 percent.

Clinton was dominant among older voters, gaining the highest share in every category of voters over age 40, including 48 percent among voters 65 and older. Obama received 32 percent of the votes from this group.

On the Republican side, McCain won the youth vote, earning 27 percent of the 18 to 24-year old vote and besting Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, who gained the next highest share with 19 percent. McCain garnered the highest percentage of votes among every age division except those voters 65 and older, a group that tended to vote in favor of former Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass.

The stark contrast between statewide outcomes and the results according to exit polls in Hanover and Durham County, which is home to the University of New Hampshire, have revealed the importance of the youth vote to Obama's campaign. In comparison to his 36.4 percent tally in the state as a whole, which left him just short of Clinton's 39 percent, Obama garnered 48 percent of the vote in Durham, besting Clinton's 30 percent.

In Hanover, where Dartmouth students comprise of approximately half the population, this difference was even more striking, as Obama gained 58 percent of the vote to Clinton's 26 percent.

An exit poll conducted by The Dartmouth that surveyed 351 voters leaving the Hanover polls indicates that the war in Iraq and health care were among the issues most important to Hanover voters. The exit polls measured votes to within three percent of official results,

Obama's support among students was critical in eliminating Clinton's previous commanding lead in the state, Dartmouth government professor Dean Lacy said.

"Student voters played an incredibly strong role for Senator Obama," Lacy said. "He made up a 15 point deficit in the polls as of just a few weeks ago."

Dartmouth government professor Linda Fowler, while noting that she had not yet examined exit poll data, said the early date for this year's primary may have deterred a number of potential student voters. Most students have not yet returned to UNH, which will commence its spring semester classes on Jan. 22.

Fowler also pointed out that the lack of time allowed for registration efforts may have affected turnout among students. In past years a later primary date allowed registration efforts to take place several days before the vote, but this year, many students were forced to register on the day of the primaries, which caused long lines at the Hanover polls.

"Maybe it wasn't the difference between a win and a loss, but it would have probably put [Obama] closer," Fowler said.

McCain's support among younger voters, Lacy said, likely came as a surprise to Paul's campaign, which had been banking on securing a large percentage of the student vote.

"On the Republican side, I think more younger Republicans look to [McCain] as a long-time party leader who is also abit of an independent," Lacy said. "Ron Paul's message just hasn't caught on with younger Republicans as much as the Paul campaign had hoped."

Jennifer Bandy '09, vice president of the Dartmouth College Republicans, said McCain's popularity among Dartmouth voters may have been correlated to McCain's multiple visits to Dartmouth's campus, which she called "emblematic" of his efforts to court New Hampshire's overall youth vote.

"I'm not surprised. He made the effort to come by twice," Bandy said, pointing to McCain's most recent visit on Monday. "We haven't had visits from other candidates as recently."

McCain's support among young voters represents a departure from a Republican party that has struggled to court young voters in the wake of the current administration, Fowler said.

"McCain's support among young people was kind of an anomaly - but then again he's not a typical Republican candidate." Fowler said, adding that McCain is a more conservative candidate than some voters may realize.

Tuesday's high youth voter turnout mirrors youth voter increases in Iowa, where participation in the caucuses rose from 4 percent in 2004 to 18 percent in this year's contest. In 2000, Iowa saw only two percent of youth participation in its caucuses, CIRCLE reported.

"The broader story here is the huge increase in the youth vote in general," Mike Heslin '08, president of the New Hampshire College Democrats, said.

There has been controversy over the role of student voters in both Iowa and New Hampshire in recent years.

In 2006, New Hampshire legislation that would have made it far more difficult for students to establish domicile in the state, was vetoed by Gov. John Lynch, D-N.H., after lobbying by Dartmouth students.

In April 2007, the New Hampshire Senate passed two bills that solidified students' right to vote in the state after establishing domicile.

At Dartmouth, Heslin pointed to the efforts of both campaigns and student groups as major contributors to Tuesday's high youth turnout.

"And the students themselves can't go overlooked," Heslin said. "When it comes down to it they were the ones who had to go to the polls and cast those votes."

I found this at http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/01/10/politics/uwire/main3698115.shtml

Hillary Clinton and Ron Paul winning big on AOL straw poll

Hugo Mann
Published 12/23/2007 - 10:05 p.m. EST
An AOL straw poll that is supposed to be spam proof shows both Hillary Clinton and Ron Paul winning their respective primaries. The poll records national as well as state-by-state results. At the time of this report over 57,000 Republicans and 56,000 Democrats have voted in the poll.

On the Democratic side the results somewhat mirrored media generated polls. Nationally Clinton has 46%, Barack Obama 27%, John Edwards 17%, Biden 4%, Kucinich 3%, Richardson 2%, Gravel 1%, and Dodd 1%.

Clinton leads in most states but Obama leads in Iowa, Illinois, Kansas, and Wyoming.

In Iowa the race is tight where Obama leads with 31% followed by Clinton with 30%and Edwards with 24%.

In New Hampshire, Clinton has 46%, Obama 26%, and Edwards has 15%.

On the Republican side the results mirrored media generated polls with one exception. Ron Paul is placing first in most states and second in several others.

The results of the other candidates did mirror media generated polls. Giuliani is winning in New York and New Jersey and Connecticut but is being edged out by Paul in Florida and New Mexico. Florida and New Mexico have changed hands several times between Giuliani and Paul.

Romney is winning Utah, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts.

Huckabee is edging out Paul in South Carolina and is being edged out by Paul in several southern states. Several southern states are virtual ties and have swung back and forth between Huckabee and Paul, including North Carolina, Alabama, and Arkansas.

Nationwide Ron Paul is generating 26% of the vote, Giuliani is getting 18%, Huckabee 17%, and Romney is getting 15%, McCain has 14%, Thompson 9%, and Duncan Hunter has 1%.

In Iowa Ron Paul has 38% of the vote. The rest of the GOP candidates mirror media generated polls regarding strength in the state. Huckabee and Romney are tied at 19%. Thompson has 9%, McCain 7%, and Giuliani 7%, with Hunter at 1%.

In New Hampshire Paul has 30% Romney 23% McCain 20%, Giuliani 15%, Huckabee 8%, Thompson 3%, and Hunter 1%. Once again, aside from Paul the candidates mirror media polls regarding strength nationally and regionally.

Paul supporters have maintained that media generated polls have been under representing his support. Paul leads GOP candidates in 4rth quarter fund raising. He has received donations from an astounding 123,000 donors this quarter.

I located this at http://www.usadaily.com/article.cfm?articleID=208588

In Jersey, Bon Jovi is the hot political ticket

By Jeremy W. Peters
Published: December 26, 2007


He calls her "Mrs. C." And she calls on him to add a little celebrity gloss to her presidential campaign.

The rock singer Jon Bon Jovi and Hillary Rodham Clinton have been friends for more than a decade, uniting for state dinners at the White House and campaign fund-raisers.

If it seems strange that a rocker who sings paeans of working-class New Jersey is so friendly with a senator and former first lady who is using a Celine Dion song as the theme of her presidential campaign, consider a few items on Bon Jovi's social calendar in the last few months.

There were dinners with Clinton and another Democratic presidential candidate, John Edwards. Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, her fiercest rival for the nomination, asked Bon Jovi to hear him speak in New York. And the former Vice President Al Gore caught up with him in London for a photo op.

Bon Jovi, 45, whose tousled golden mane and porcelain-white smile have twice helped him earn People magazine's award for sexiest rock star, can lay claim to an unofficial new title these days: the New Jersey's elder statesman.


In New Jersey, it is practically a requirement for any high-ranking politician to attend at least one of his shows. And despite his left-leaning political allegiances, Democrats and Republicans alike seek him out as if he were New Jersey's very own Bono.

When a former governor, Christie Whitman, was deciding whether to build a sports arena, she consulted Bon Jovi - part owner of the Arena Football League team the Philadelphia Soul - and took his advice to pass on it. When Newark needed a marquee name to christen the Prudential Center arena, one of its most important new developments in decades, it turned to him.

"He basically says, 'Hey, here's where I'm from, like it or not,' " said Whitman, a Republican who later became administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency under President George W. Bush. "And that's refreshing for the state of New Jersey because we don't have a lot of that."

Former New Jersey governors, senators and state legislators who have worked or played with him over the years say it is a combination of his fealty to New Jersey and his blue-collar authenticity that draws politicians to him. And as someone who sings about his "plastic dashboard Jesus" and performs at concerts to fight global warming, his appeal is broad.

Unlike many other celebrities, he keeps his thoughts about the war in Iraq and Bush largely to himself. While a fellow New Jersey rock star, Bruce Springsteen, is not shy about taking Bush to task and speaks out against the war on his new CD, Bon Jovi is more comfortable talking about poverty and affordable housing. And his attention to those causes has earned him an audience with some of the biggest American political names.

"My impression of Jon Bon Jovi is, every time he's been asked to help his state, he's done it," said a former governor, Thomas Kean Sr., a Republican. "We have an enormous amount of entertainers in New Jersey, and I can't say that about a lot of them."

Bon Jovi's high visibility recently touched off speculation in gossip columns that he had designs on running for office, possibly governor, because he is keeping his estate in New Jersey even though he and his family spend most of their time in New York.

But Bon Jovi dismissed the rumors. Life as a rock star, he said, suited him quite well. In a recent interview by telephone from London, he recounted a conversation with President Bill Clinton about two years ago.

The two were on a flight to Maryland for a day of horse racing at the Pimlico race course with some friends when someone asked them to compare occupations. "He said, 'Mr. President, which is better, your job or Jon's?' I said, 'I know the answer to that. Mine, because I get to keep the airplane and the house.' "
Terms of Use

I found this at http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/12/26/america/bonjovi.php

Edwards says he sounds like a Democratic president

CONWAY, NEW HAMPSHIRE: U.S. Democratic presidential candidate John Edwards tried to increase support in the key early voting state of New Hampshire on Wednesday with promises of fighting the establishment, changing Washington — and even speaking with a Southern accent.

The former U.S. senator, in a tight race with rivals Hillary Rodham Clinton and Barack Obama, stuck to populist themes.

"You'd better choose someone as your candidate who's ready for this battle. Nice words will not change anything," Edwards said.

New Hampshire and Iowa are the crucial first contests in political parties' state-by-state process of selecting presidential nominees. Candidates who do well in the Iowa caucuses Jan. 3, and in the New Hampshire primary five days later, can gain momentum and media attention, establishing themselves as front-runners. Those who do poorly often decide to drop out of the race.

Edwards has spent years building an organization in Iowa. In New Hampshire, polls show Clinton and Obama in a tight race. Edwards remains a distant third but hopes a strong showing in Iowa will let him go into New Hampshire with momentum.
Today in Americas
In Jersey, Bon Jovi is the hot political ticket
Candidates rush into final stretch in Iowa
Colombia authorizes mission to recover 3 hostages

"It's a very competitive race. From everything I see, it's a dead heat between the three of us," Edwards told reporters after going door-to-door looking for votes.

He refrained from criticizing his rivals, aware that Iowa voters tend to reject overtly negative campaigning.

"My fight is not with politicians. My fight is on behalf of those kind of people I grew up with who deserve a real chance in this country," Edwards said.

He cited his small-town, Southern roots as an asset in the race.

"The last two Democratic presidents, Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter," he said in his Southern twang, "both talk like me."

He said Wednesday was his last day in New Hampshire before the voting begins.

"We'll go from here to Iowa very late tonight. ... I, Elizabeth, my kids, my parents — everybody will be stationed in Iowa between now and Jan. 3."

"Having done this once before, this is crunch time, now's when it matters," Edwards said.
I found this at http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2007/12/26/america/NA-POL-US-Edwards-New-Hampshire.php

Which Democrat's Health Plan

By LAURA MECKLER
December 5, 2007; Page A8

While the leading Democratic presidential candidates agree on most policy issues, a sharp dispute has emerged: Who would do more to provide health coverage for the uninsured?

Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have been engaged in a bitter back-and-forth over whose health plan covers more people. Former Sen. John Edwards has jumped in, saying his plan is the best of all.
• The Players: Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards all claim to have universal health-care proposals.
• The Background: Clinton and Edwards, but not Obama, would require all Americans to have insurance.
• The Bottom Line: Mandates may be needed to get everyone insured, but it's unclear if these plans provide enough subsidies to make the mandates affordable.

The argument concerns whether the government should require all Americans to get insurance. Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Edwards would require people to get insurance, either through work, a government program or new health marketplaces that all three candidates promise to set up. Mr. Obama would only require that children be insured.

Other elements of their plans are similar, including subsidies to help lower-income and even middle-income families pay premiums, and various proposals to cut the cost of health care. The candidates say they would pay for their plans by rolling back President Bush's tax cuts for upper-income earners and by savings in health spending through various measures.

None of the Republican candidates has proposed a universal health plan. But with the race tight and health care the No. 1 domestic issue for Democrats, the differences among Democrats have become a point of continuing tension.

Mrs. Clinton charges that Mr. Obama's plan would leave 15 million people without insurance. Outside experts agree that number is in the ballpark. If people aren't required by law to buy insurance, many won't. There are millions of children, for instance, who remain uninsured, even though they qualify for free or subsidized government programs.

In addition, all three candidates want to bar insurance companies from rejecting sick people or charging them more. But it is hard to require companies to insure expensive sick people if they aren't guaranteed that cheap healthy people will balance them out.

On the campaign trail, Mrs. Clinton has attacked Mr. Obama for his plan, saying it betrays the Democratic principle of universal coverage. Her campaign has demanded that he take down an advertisement that claims his plan "covers everyone."

Mr. Obama has replied that her attacks are more about politics than substance; they didn't come, he noted, until she lost ground in the polls. But his advisers don't dispute her central charge. Rather, they claim Mrs. Clinton's plan would also leave millions without coverage.

Obama adviser Austan Goolsbee argues that if Mrs. Clinton's health plan is enacted, she will have to waive the mandate for millions of people. That is because, he says, there isn't enough money for subsidies to make health insurance affordable enough for people to buy it.

"You can't put in a mandate until health care is affordable," he says. He predicted that a Hillary Clinton administration would wind up exempting 20% of the uninsured, or about 10 million people. That is the percentage of uninsured adults who were exempted in Massachusetts, the only state to try an individual mandate.

That view may not be true. Ken Thorpe, a health-policy expert at Emory University who has advised all three major Democrats, said he ran cost estimates for the Clinton plan at the Clinton campaign's request, and found there should be enough money to make insurance affordable for all. He said he ran three scenarios with varying levels of subsidies -- from $100 billion a year to $120 billion a year. The campaign chose one in the middle: $110 billion.

If it turns out that isn't enough money to make health premiums affordable, Mrs. Clinton would have to spend more on subsidies, one of her health-care advisers said.

But, the adviser said, it is wrong to assume that 20% of Americans will be exempted. It is impossible to say for certain, because the campaign has not explained how large the subsidies will be or who will qualify for them.

The Obama plan does some other things to get people insurance. It allows adults up to age 25 to stay on their parents' insurance even if they aren't in school. And it attempts to lower the cost of insurance overall through a reinsurance plan, whereby the federal government would cover some expenses of some of the most costly patients.

Outside experts note that the Clinton and Obama plans propose spending about the same amount of money, while Mr. Obama uses some of his to pay for the reinsurance plan -- an initiative that could cost tens of billions of dollars. That should help lower premiums across the board, but it means there would be less available for direct subsidies.

Amid the Clinton-Obama dispute, Mr. Edwards, who was the first to propose a universal coverage plan, has tried to jump into the debate. He notes that he has been much more specific than Mrs. Clinton has about how he will enforce the mandate. Indeed, Mrs. Clinton has suggested some options but has not made as clear a statement about enforcement.

Under the Edwards plan, people will have to prove their have insurance when they file their taxes, and the government will seek to collect back premiums, with interest, for those who refuse to get it.

None of the candidates want to talk about the fact that even if their plans worked out exactly as designed, none would cover all 47 million uninsured people in the U.S. That's because several million of the uninsured -- estimates put it up to seven million -- are illegal immigrants, and none of the front-runners include them in their programs.

Write to Laura Meckler at laura.meckler@wsj.com

Huckabee’s Leap in Iowa Poll Reverberates

DES MOINES – The big news in presidential politics this Sunday is the pole vault of Mike Huckabee into first place in the new Des Moines Register poll of likely Iowa Republican caucus-goers, who had appeared to favor the better-known, better-financed Mitt Romney for much of this year.

The poll found Mr. Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas, winning 29 percent of the support from Republicans who definitely or probably plan to vote in the Jan. 3 caucuses – an increase of 17 points since the last poll in early October. Mr. Romney, the former Massachusetts governor, fell to second place with 24 percent of the vote, while former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani came in third with 13 percent.

On the Democratic side, Senator Barack Obama of Illinois showed continued strength against Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, polling in a statistical dead heat that also includes former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina.

The poll of 500 Republicans and 500 Democrats, conducted in late November, had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Iowa goes first among all the states in the presidential nominating process of caucuses and primaries, followed by New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina.

In the last Register poll, in early October, Mrs. Clinton led Mr. Edwards and Mr. Obama, 29-23-22 percent respectively.

Since then Mrs. Clinton has faced a barrage of criticism from the two men – particularly from Mr. Edwards – over her positions on Iran, Social Security reform, and her candor and electability. She has only recently begun returning fire in kind, though so far it has been mostly aimed at Mr. Obama and the fact that his health insurance proposal does not guarantee universal coverage because it does not require people to obtain insurance.

Among the most interesting findings in the poll, Mr. Obama also overtook Mrs. Clinton in her core demographic – female voters. He had support from 31 percent of women likely to attend the caucuses, compared to 26 percent for Mrs. Clinton. In the October poll, Mrs. Clinton had 34 percent to Mr. Obama’s 21 percent.

The poll also found Mr. Huckabee leading Mr. Romney among men, born-again Christians, and middle-aged voters, and running about even among women and older voters. Mr. Romney did better with younger Republicans,

Three other Republican candidates – Fred Thompson, John McCain, and Ron Paul – were all in the single digits in the new poll.

Abortion groups split, giving endorsements to Huckabee and Thompson

Sunday, December 2, 2007, 10:08 AM

The Atlanta Journal-Constitution

Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee has picked up endorsement of Georgia Right to Life, the statewide anti-abortion organization.

Again, GRTL is in disagreement with the national organization, which last month endorsed Fred Thompson. But the Georgia group says Huckabee is the best man to stop Rudy Giuliani.

Not Hillary Clinton. Rudy Giuliani.

In the past, the Georgia organization has urged a tougher line than National Right to Life — insisting that political candidates oppose abortion even in cases of rape or incest.

This time, it looks like an amendment to the U.S. Constitution is the issue.

Here’s what the national group said when it endorsed Thompson:

“While Fred supports the long-term objective of the Human Life Amendment, the votes are simply not there in Congress, nor were they there when we controlled both houses of Congress. For instance, in the Senate, we are presently at least 25 votes short, with passage in the House even more difficult.

“Fred intends to focus his presidency on those things that can be achieved, or advanced, in the next four to eight years.”

The Georgia group not only noted Huckabee’s support of an amendment to the U.S. Constitution, but also applauded the candidate for supporting a local legislative priority of Georgia Right to Life — H.R.536, which would establish that human life legally begins at fertilization.

Bryan Lash, the PAC director for the Georgia group, acknowledged the split with their Washington-based umbrella.

“Under normal circumstances we would communicate their presidential endorsement to our 225,000 households,” he said. “Passing a Personhood Amendment here in Georgia is our key issue in achieving our objective to extend the protections of the law to all persons both born and unborn.”

Further, Lash said, “Mr. Huckabee’s recent surge in the polls, we believe, demonstrates that he is the pro-life movement’s best hope in defeating pro-abortion candidate Rudy Giuliani.”

Hillary presses for more fund for AIDS

LOS ANGELES, Nov. 29 - Democratic presidential front-runner Sen. Hillary Clinton on Thursday pressed for 50 billion U.S. dollars for treatment, prevention and care of AIDS by 2013.

Calling AIDS a "plague of biblical proportions," Hillary said if elected, she will double the HIV/AIDS research budget within the National Institutes of Health to 5.2 billion dollars annually, increase funding for the global HIV/AIDS fight to at least 50 billion dollars by 2013, raise funding for the Minority AIDS Initiative, and develop and implement a comprehensive national AIDS strategy.

She spoke at the third annual Global Summit on AIDS and the Church in Orange County near Los Angeles.

Hosted by pastor Rick Warren, author of the best-selling devotional book, "The Purpose Driven Life," and his wife, the summit was established to mobilize church resources to fight the disease.

"Around the world, AIDS remains a plague of biblical proportions," she said, "In too many places, ignorance about AIDS prevails and the stigma remains strong."

However, "we have come a long way," she added.

"Not only can we talk about AIDS in church, but churches are leading the way," she said.

Hillary's leading rivals for the Democratic presidential nomination, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama and former North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, have made similar proposals.

In a video appearance, Obama said, "This is no occasion to rest. Now's the time to step up our efforts so we can stay on the offense to eliminate this disease."

Also appearing via satellite video were three Republican candidates -- former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Arizona Sen. John McCain.

Clinton Returns to Trail After Hostage Incident

Sen. Hillary Clinton plans to return to the presidential campaign trail Sunday in Iowa on the heels of a hostage emergency at her Rochester, N.H., campaign office Friday.

But the New Hampshire office remains closed today and it is unclear when, or if, it will reopen.

Clinton raced to New Hampshire after learning Leeland Eisenberg allegedly walked into the office claiming to be strapped with a bomb and held as many as five people hostage.

As police continue their investigation and Eisenberg remained in custody, Clinton expressed her gratitude to officers who dealt with the emergency and said she was glad the incident ended peacefully.

"This was obviously a very difficult situation," she said. "I just met with hostages and a number of their families and [they feel] a lot of relief, a lot of gratitude."

Meanwhile, more details about the man who kept police at bay for six hours have emerged. Eisenberg, who now faces several charges including kidnapping, criminal threatening and reckless conduct at the state level, has a history of emotional problems and his wife filed for divorce last week.

Eisenberg also may face possible federal charges.

It also turns out the bomb Eisenberg claimed to have strapped to himself was really a harmless device made of road flares.

Polls in Iowa

By Thomas Beaumont and Jonathan Roos, The Des Moines Register
Republican Mike Huckabee and Democratic Sen. Barack Obama have taken the lead among Iowans likely to take part in their respective party caucuses, according to The Des Moines Register's latest poll.

Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas, wins the support of 29% of Iowans who say they definitely or probably will attend the Republican Party's caucuses on Jan. 3. That's a gain of 17 percentage points since the last Iowa Poll was taken in early October, when Huckabee trailed Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson.

Obama, an Illinois senator, leads for the first time in the Register's poll as the choice of 28% of likely Democratic Party caucus goers, up from 22% in October. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., was the preferred candidate of 25%, down from 29% in the previous poll.

Romney, who has invested more time and money campaigning in the state than any other GOP candidate, remains in the thick of the Iowa race with the backing of 24% of likely caucusgoers. But that's a drop of 5 percentage points since October for the former Massachusetts governor.

Despite the movement, the race for 2008's opening nominating contest remains very competitive about a month before the Jan. 3 caucuses. Roughly six in 10 likely Republican caucus participants and slightly more than half of Democrats say they could still be persuaded to support another candidate.


John Edwards, the former senator from North Carolina who led in the Register's May poll, held steady with 23%, in third place among Democrats. Rudy Giuliani, ex-mayor of New York and the front-runner in GOP national polls, was third among Iowa Republicans with 13%, despite waging a limited campaign in the state.

The new Iowa Poll, conducted over four days last week, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Republicans

Poll findings indicate Huckabee is making the most of a low-budget campaign by tapping into the support of Iowa's social conservatives.

The Register's new scientific poll shows Huckabee, a former Baptist minister, leading Romney 38% to 22% among those who consider themselves born-again Christians. In October, Romney edged Huckabee 23% to 18% among people in that group, which accounts for one-half of all likely caucus participants.

Similarly, Huckabee holds a 2-to-1 lead over Romney among those who say it is more important for a presidential candidate to be socially conservative than fiscally conservative.

Poll participant Thelma Whittaker, a retired teacher from Columbus Junction, is leaning toward supporting Huckabee in the caucuses but also could back Romney.

"I'm a very conservative Republican and I feel that (Huckabee) follows through with those ideas," said Whittaker, who said she is troubled by the country's moral decline. On the other hand, she wonders if Huckabee is a strong enough candidate to win the White House for the GOP.

When it comes to Romney, "I go along with a lot of his ideas," Whittaker said, "but he's also done some flip-flopping that scares me on issues like abortion and taxes."

Huckabee has come a long way since last May, when he languished in a tie for sixth place in the Register's poll, garnering the support of just 4% of likely caucus participants then. His campaign picked up steam after he notched a surprising second-place finish in the Iowa Republican Party's straw poll in August.

Huckabee leads Romney among men, 28% to 20%. They run neck-and-neck among women. The ex-governor of Arkansas draws more support among caucusgoers between the ages of 35 and 54, while Romney does better among younger adults. They compete almost evenly among those 55 or older.

Older Iowans generally turn out in larger numbers for the caucuses than do younger adults.

Giuliani is seen as the most electable of the candidates and also has a slight edge as the most effective negotiator and the best able to bring Republicans and Democrats together.

On the other hand, the New Yorker is seen by more likely caucus participants as the most ego-driven of the candidates and more of a polarizing figure than the other top-tier candidates in Iowa.

"He's too New York," Whittaker, the retired teacher, said of Giuliani. "He doesn't understand us. He doesn't care to understand us."

But poll participant Mark Pottorff, an agronomist from Sergeant Bluff, sides with those who have a high regard for Giuliani, citing his experience as a federal prosecutor and big-city mayor.

"He is tough on crime, and during September 2001 he led New York City through some very tough and dark days," said Pottorff, 51. "I think he has the ability and the fortitude to stand up to dictators and terrorists."

Thompson, a former senator from Tennessee who waited until September to formally enter the race for the Republican nomination, has slipped to fourth place in the Iowa Poll, at 9%.

Sen. John McCain of Arizona and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas are tied for fifth place at 7% each. Four candidates trail them.

Paul, an opponent of the war in Iraq, has the dubious distinction of being the GOP candidate who outpolls his rivals as the most negative contender. But Paul, who has a loyal following and a well-funded campaign, has been creeping up in the Register's polls this year of likely caucus participants.

Democrats

The lead change among Democratic caucus participants comes after weeks of Obama and Edwards criticizing Clinton's position on U.S. policy toward Iran. Meanwhile, Clinton has accused Obama of being inexperienced, and recently criticized his proposal to expand health insurance coverage.

The poll shows what has continued to be a wide gap between the top three candidates and the remainder of the field.

Iowa City Democrat Katharyn Browne said she abandoned her support for Clinton in the past month and now supports Obama in light of the Iran issue.

Obama spent weeks in October and November attacking Clinton's support for a measure that allowed President Bush to declare Iran's Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization. Obama said the move was a step toward war. Clinton said the measure enhanced U.S. negotiating strength with Iran.

"An Iran war terrifies me," said Browne, a 30-year-old University of Iowa student.

In the new poll, Obama leads with support from 31% of women likely attend the caucuses, compared with 26% for Clinton. In October, Clinton was the preferred candidate of 34% of women caucusgoers, compared with 21% for Obama.

Women represent roughly six in 10 Democratic caucusgoers, according to the new poll.

Obama also dominates among younger caucusgoers, with support from 48% of those younger than 35. Clinton was the choice of 19% in that group and Edwards of 17%.

Obama has an advantage among first-time caucusgoers. He also leads among people who say they definitely will attend the caucuses.

Clinton is the top choice among caucusgoers age 55 and older. The largest share of Democratic caucusgoers — exactly half — are in this age group.

The former first lady continues to face stubborn misgivings, despite her dozens of visits to the state this year and increasing campaign presence of her husband, the popular former president Bill Clinton.

Thirty percent of Democratic caucusgoers viewed Sen. Clinton as either mostly or very unfavorably, behind Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio and former Alaska senator Mike Gravel. She topped the list of candidates whose nomination would be one of the biggest disappointments at 27%.

Edwards, who finished second in the 2004 caucuses, led narrowly among men in the new poll and was tied with Clinton for the favorite in Iowa's rural areas.

Rural Centerville Democrat Candace Scritchfield supported Edwards in 2004 and plans to again.

"He's a very down-to-earth and trustworthy person," said Scritchfield, a 44-year-old homemaker. "He has a lot of loyalty, that I can tell."

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson remained in fourth place as the choice of 9%, and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden remained in fifth with 6%, both virtually unchanged from the October poll. All others had support from 1% or less.

Presidential preferences include people leaning toward supporting a candidate. Seven percent said they were uncommitted or unsure about whom to support.

Democrates at the Heartland Presidential Forum

The people got more microphone time than the politicians.

Five Democratic presidential candidates who spoke at the Heartland Presidential Forum Saturday in Des Moines could do little more than nod and listen as person after person – mostly out-of-state residents – shared emotional stories of perceived injustice.

And the audience of 3,600 did not hesitate to express emotion. As they listened to descriptions of loss of health insurance, the stench of a nearby factory farm, or a family split up by immigration officials, the crowd frequently yelled out: “That ain’t right!” and booed.

Hillary Clinton, a U.S. senator from New York, felt the glare of their displeasure after Billy Lawless, a Chicago immigrations rights organizer, asked her if she’d commit to giving undocumented workers a path to citizenship in her first 100 days as president.

Clinton, who spoke via telephone after weather prevented her flight to Iowa, said immigration reform is a top priority.

But Lawless pressed her, asking if she’d do it in the first 100 days.

Clinton said it’s up to Congress to pass such reform, but as president she would do as much as possible.

The crowd booed, apparently upset that she wouldn’t commit to a 100-days promise.

Chris Dodd, a U.S. senator from Connecticut, was the next candidate to get that question, and he quickly answered: “Absolutely, absolutely.”

“One of the great sources of our wealth and strength of our country has been the diversity of our people,” Dodd said. “We’ve never done anything worthwhile as a nation when we’ve done it out of fear and hate.”

Saturday’s crowd was hardly just caucus-eligible Iowans. People were bused in from Missouri, Kansas, Illinois and Minnesota, and organizers said people from 33 states were represented as part of a kick-off to the Campaign for Community Values.

The forum was hosted by Iowa Citizens for Community Improvement and Campaign for Community Values, a movement that includes about 100 community organizations.

Only one Republican responded to the invitation – businessman John Cox - but the hosts’ lawyers advised against a solo member of one party because it would appear to be an endorsement.

Also in attendance were former North Carolina senator John Edwards, Illinois senator Barack Obama and Dennis Kucinich, a representative from Ohio.

Here's some of what they had to say:

EDWARDS: He listened to Virgene Martin of Bridgewater’s story about 400 people banding together to fight a factory farm. They failed, and the hog operation is now located next to Martin’s own family farm.

“What’s happening is these big corporate farming operations, and big multi-national corporations that are taking over farming in America, these corporate predatory lending operations, these big drug companies, big insurance companies, big oil companies, big banks, big gas companies we see what they’re doing to destroy our land,” Edwards said. “We see what they’re doing to destroy our people and take away our assets. How long are we going to let these people run the United States of America?”

Edwards, a former trial lawyer, said he beat those big corporations in the courtroom, “and I’ll beat ‘em again.”

KUCINICH: Irlanda Helgen of Marshalltown got teary-eyed telling Kucinich about a father of five children whose wife left for work one day and never came back because of an immigration raid.

“There are no illegal human beings,” Kucinich said in English and Spanish.

Deb Thomas of Wyoming told Kucinich that oil and gas companies that use hazardous chemicals in drilling are turning communities “into toxic wastelands.”

“We understand why we’re in Iraq, in a word,” Kucinich said and held out the microphone to capture the audience shout the word “Oil.”

Kucinich gave a fiery answer about his plan to move the country away from reliance on coal. He talked about a “full employment economy,” where everyone has a job, as well as health care for all, and education for all, from age 3 through college.

And he got wild applause when he said: “We must give those who come to this country a path to legalization.”

CLINTON: Patricia Divine Wilder of the town of Walla Walla in Washington state said she’s a small business owner who can’t afford health insurance. Her 36-year-old nephew also had no insurance, and by the time he went to the doctor for pain in his back and shoulders, his cancer was incurable.

“James died,” Wilder said, then paused to cry.

“Take your time,” Clinton said softly.

“James died,” Wilder continued, “just six weeks later."

“We have to have a better government safety net,” Clinton said, then gave a summary of her health care reform plan.

DODD: Emira Palacios, of Wichita, Kansas, told Dodd she came to the United States 22 years ago as an undocumented worker. She has spent over $15,000 during the process of becoming a citizen, and she and her 18-year old son will vote for first time in the next election.

“Take your time now,” Dodd said when Palacios became too emotional to speak.

Dodd said the country has to “have secure borders, obviously.”

Later, a moderator cut him off when his answer crossed the two-minute limit.

“I get more time here than I get at those debates, though, I can tell you that,” Dodd said, chuckling.

OBAMA: Deidra Lewis of Massachusetts said her daughter woke up with a burning feeling in her eyes one day. Lewis had to cut back her work hours to deal with her daughter’s rare eye disease. In January, she lost her health insurance.

But she enrolled in the State Children’s Health Insurance Program, and the public program made the difference between a child going blind or keeping her eyesight.

“Can you look into Alexsiana’s eyes and tell me don’t all God’s children deserve medical care?” she asked Obama.

Obama said yes. Alexsiana crossed the stage to hug him. The audience couldn’t hear what he whispered in her ear.

Obama vowed to have a plan in place for health insurance for all Americans by the end of his first term as president.

After a string of stories told by people from the Bronx, Cleveland, Mississippi, South Carolina and California, Debra Carr told Obama she is from Des Moines.

Obama immediately said: “I want you to caucus for me.”