CEDAR RAPIDS — Trying to get a handle on who's supporting U.S. Rep. Ron Paul for the Republican presidential nomination is tricky on a number of levels.
The obvious problem is that many of his supporters prefer cell phones to land lines so they aren't contacted by pollsters, Paul, 72, explained during a recent visit to Cedar Rapids. Other supporters don't show up on pollsters' call lists of "likely caucus-goers" because they are young and have never caucused, or they are Republicans who have dropped out of party activities for a decade or more, the 31-year Texas congressman added.
Then there's the fact that his backers represent such diverse — and often disparate — political philosophies that they defy convention.
In addition to opposing the Iraq war, Paul has attracted supporters of Second Amendment gun rights as well as opponents of abortion, income taxes and the North American Free Trade Agreement. He also wins the backing of those who want to return to the gold standard, decriminalize marijuana and pull out of the United Nations and NATO.
If there is a common thread that weaves through Paul's patchwork quilt of support, however, it is individual freedom.
"I find that tends to bring people together rather than divide us because it recognizes that people have different beliefs and different lifestyles, and we don't challenge each other," said Paul, a former obstetrician and Air Force flight surgeon.
"They want to be free," said his Linn County campaign chairman, Ed Dolan of Central City. "They're tired of government telling them what to do."
And they're not just Republicans.
"I'm putting signs in Democrats' yards," Dolan said. "I'm getting calls from independents and people who have never been involved."
There's a one-word explanation of what's motivating Paul supporters, according to Drew Ivers, the campaign's Iowa chairman.
"There's a common thread: change," Ivers said. "It's a platitude. Barack Obama is speaking it. Hillary Clinton is speaking it, so it's as trite a platitude as you'll ever hear."
The difference, according to Ivers, who is on his fifth presidential caucus campaign, is that in most cases, promising change "is the carrot the donkey never gets."
"People do want true change and are looking for the candidate who can really deliver it," he said.
Paul, who ran for president as a Libertarian in 1988 and received fewer than 500,000 votes, shies away from predicting how well he'll do in the Jan. 3 Iowa caucuses other than to say "the higher the better." Despite polling in the single digits, Paul's use of phrases like "top three finish" suggest that he has upset on his mind.
"If you can get 37,000 people to send a donation on one day over the Internet without us doing a single thing or paying one penny for the fundraising, I can't believe those people and their families and their friends and the people they talk to over the next months won't be voting," Paul said. "I mean, what are they investing in if not to get people to the polls?"
Dolan acknowledges the conventional wisdom is that a candidate has to finish in the top three to get a ticket out of Iowa. Paul may finish in the top flight, Dolan suggested, but regardless of how he fares Jan. 3, the campaign will go on.
"None of us sit around and talk about 'If we don't come in first or second we need to change our plan,'" Paul said.
"Our plan is our plan. Our plan is our message," he said. If there's enthusiasm, if the numbers grow, if the money comes in, we'll just keep plugging along and doing what we do. The higher the better.
"It would be pretty darn discouraging if there are eight people on the ballot and I'm eighth," he said. "That would mean we have deluded ourselves into believing that Internet support was bigger than we realized."
Dolan expects Paul to do well in Iowa and, perhaps, even better in New Hampshire where the libertarian philosophy is captured in the state motto — "Live free or die."
"That may be where the campaign takes off," Dolan said
The campaign has a national strategy, Ivers said, noting that Paul has not spent as much time in Iowa as other candidates.
"We're laying the groundwork all over. Not just in Iowa," he said.
"We don't have to win here to have the momentum we need to do well in New Hampshire, South Carolina and beyond."
Paul is scheduled to be in Iowa on Dec. 11 and 12, Dec. 27 through 29 and Jan. 2 and 3.
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