Polls in Iowa

By Thomas Beaumont and Jonathan Roos, The Des Moines Register
Republican Mike Huckabee and Democratic Sen. Barack Obama have taken the lead among Iowans likely to take part in their respective party caucuses, according to The Des Moines Register's latest poll.

Huckabee, a former governor of Arkansas, wins the support of 29% of Iowans who say they definitely or probably will attend the Republican Party's caucuses on Jan. 3. That's a gain of 17 percentage points since the last Iowa Poll was taken in early October, when Huckabee trailed Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson.

Obama, an Illinois senator, leads for the first time in the Register's poll as the choice of 28% of likely Democratic Party caucus goers, up from 22% in October. Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., was the preferred candidate of 25%, down from 29% in the previous poll.

Romney, who has invested more time and money campaigning in the state than any other GOP candidate, remains in the thick of the Iowa race with the backing of 24% of likely caucusgoers. But that's a drop of 5 percentage points since October for the former Massachusetts governor.

Despite the movement, the race for 2008's opening nominating contest remains very competitive about a month before the Jan. 3 caucuses. Roughly six in 10 likely Republican caucus participants and slightly more than half of Democrats say they could still be persuaded to support another candidate.


John Edwards, the former senator from North Carolina who led in the Register's May poll, held steady with 23%, in third place among Democrats. Rudy Giuliani, ex-mayor of New York and the front-runner in GOP national polls, was third among Iowa Republicans with 13%, despite waging a limited campaign in the state.

The new Iowa Poll, conducted over four days last week, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.

Republicans

Poll findings indicate Huckabee is making the most of a low-budget campaign by tapping into the support of Iowa's social conservatives.

The Register's new scientific poll shows Huckabee, a former Baptist minister, leading Romney 38% to 22% among those who consider themselves born-again Christians. In October, Romney edged Huckabee 23% to 18% among people in that group, which accounts for one-half of all likely caucus participants.

Similarly, Huckabee holds a 2-to-1 lead over Romney among those who say it is more important for a presidential candidate to be socially conservative than fiscally conservative.

Poll participant Thelma Whittaker, a retired teacher from Columbus Junction, is leaning toward supporting Huckabee in the caucuses but also could back Romney.

"I'm a very conservative Republican and I feel that (Huckabee) follows through with those ideas," said Whittaker, who said she is troubled by the country's moral decline. On the other hand, she wonders if Huckabee is a strong enough candidate to win the White House for the GOP.

When it comes to Romney, "I go along with a lot of his ideas," Whittaker said, "but he's also done some flip-flopping that scares me on issues like abortion and taxes."

Huckabee has come a long way since last May, when he languished in a tie for sixth place in the Register's poll, garnering the support of just 4% of likely caucus participants then. His campaign picked up steam after he notched a surprising second-place finish in the Iowa Republican Party's straw poll in August.

Huckabee leads Romney among men, 28% to 20%. They run neck-and-neck among women. The ex-governor of Arkansas draws more support among caucusgoers between the ages of 35 and 54, while Romney does better among younger adults. They compete almost evenly among those 55 or older.

Older Iowans generally turn out in larger numbers for the caucuses than do younger adults.

Giuliani is seen as the most electable of the candidates and also has a slight edge as the most effective negotiator and the best able to bring Republicans and Democrats together.

On the other hand, the New Yorker is seen by more likely caucus participants as the most ego-driven of the candidates and more of a polarizing figure than the other top-tier candidates in Iowa.

"He's too New York," Whittaker, the retired teacher, said of Giuliani. "He doesn't understand us. He doesn't care to understand us."

But poll participant Mark Pottorff, an agronomist from Sergeant Bluff, sides with those who have a high regard for Giuliani, citing his experience as a federal prosecutor and big-city mayor.

"He is tough on crime, and during September 2001 he led New York City through some very tough and dark days," said Pottorff, 51. "I think he has the ability and the fortitude to stand up to dictators and terrorists."

Thompson, a former senator from Tennessee who waited until September to formally enter the race for the Republican nomination, has slipped to fourth place in the Iowa Poll, at 9%.

Sen. John McCain of Arizona and Rep. Ron Paul of Texas are tied for fifth place at 7% each. Four candidates trail them.

Paul, an opponent of the war in Iraq, has the dubious distinction of being the GOP candidate who outpolls his rivals as the most negative contender. But Paul, who has a loyal following and a well-funded campaign, has been creeping up in the Register's polls this year of likely caucus participants.

Democrats

The lead change among Democratic caucus participants comes after weeks of Obama and Edwards criticizing Clinton's position on U.S. policy toward Iran. Meanwhile, Clinton has accused Obama of being inexperienced, and recently criticized his proposal to expand health insurance coverage.

The poll shows what has continued to be a wide gap between the top three candidates and the remainder of the field.

Iowa City Democrat Katharyn Browne said she abandoned her support for Clinton in the past month and now supports Obama in light of the Iran issue.

Obama spent weeks in October and November attacking Clinton's support for a measure that allowed President Bush to declare Iran's Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization. Obama said the move was a step toward war. Clinton said the measure enhanced U.S. negotiating strength with Iran.

"An Iran war terrifies me," said Browne, a 30-year-old University of Iowa student.

In the new poll, Obama leads with support from 31% of women likely attend the caucuses, compared with 26% for Clinton. In October, Clinton was the preferred candidate of 34% of women caucusgoers, compared with 21% for Obama.

Women represent roughly six in 10 Democratic caucusgoers, according to the new poll.

Obama also dominates among younger caucusgoers, with support from 48% of those younger than 35. Clinton was the choice of 19% in that group and Edwards of 17%.

Obama has an advantage among first-time caucusgoers. He also leads among people who say they definitely will attend the caucuses.

Clinton is the top choice among caucusgoers age 55 and older. The largest share of Democratic caucusgoers — exactly half — are in this age group.

The former first lady continues to face stubborn misgivings, despite her dozens of visits to the state this year and increasing campaign presence of her husband, the popular former president Bill Clinton.

Thirty percent of Democratic caucusgoers viewed Sen. Clinton as either mostly or very unfavorably, behind Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio and former Alaska senator Mike Gravel. She topped the list of candidates whose nomination would be one of the biggest disappointments at 27%.

Edwards, who finished second in the 2004 caucuses, led narrowly among men in the new poll and was tied with Clinton for the favorite in Iowa's rural areas.

Rural Centerville Democrat Candace Scritchfield supported Edwards in 2004 and plans to again.

"He's a very down-to-earth and trustworthy person," said Scritchfield, a 44-year-old homemaker. "He has a lot of loyalty, that I can tell."

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson remained in fourth place as the choice of 9%, and Delaware Sen. Joe Biden remained in fifth with 6%, both virtually unchanged from the October poll. All others had support from 1% or less.

Presidential preferences include people leaning toward supporting a candidate. Seven percent said they were uncommitted or unsure about whom to support.